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发布时间:2019-09-14 13:59:23 阅读: 来源:剪切机厂家



1. Reaching for yield

1. 追求高收益率

What this country needs is a good 5% certificate of deposit. Instead the collapse in interest rates, and the Federal Reserve's policy of keeping them down for as long as possible, is driving people crazy─especially people who need to generate income from their investments.

美国这个国家需要的是收益率能够达到5%的定期存单。然而,这里有的只是利率的一降再降,以及联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)尽量将利率维持在低位的政策,这样的现状逼得人们愈加疯狂──对于那些需要从投资中获取收益的人而言尤其如此。

In these circumstances, people start to do really foolish things in the desperate hunt for higher interest rates. That includes taking on crazy amounts of risk, or investing in complex products they don't understand, in the hope of higher yields. The Fed is producing a bull market in scams, Ponzi schemes and associated rackets.


The Securities and Exchange Commission recently warned about an epidemic of bogus high-yield 'corporate promissory notes' being marketed to investors by scam artists.

美国证券交易委员会(Securities and Exchange Commission)最近提醒投资者小心,目前市场中有一种由骗子发行的虚假高收益“企业本票”在大量传播。

The Wall Street Journal's Jason Zweig highlighted the woes of those sold complex 'reverse convertibles, ' a legal but complicated product with embedded risks. Eric Lewis, chief investment officer of Bedrock Capital Management in Los Altos, Calif., suggests that if you can't explain an investment to a friend, including what might go wrong, you should think twice.

《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)的杰森•茨威格(Jason Zweig)指出了那些卖出“反向可转债”这一复杂产品的投资者所面临的困境,“反向可转债”是一种合法的金融产品,不过此类产品结构复杂,其本身存在着潜在的风险。加利福尼亚州洛斯阿尔托斯(Los Altos)的资产管理公司Bedrock Capital Management的首席投资长埃里克•刘易斯(Eric Lewis)建议,如果你无法向自己的朋友解释清楚一项投资,包括这项投资可能会面临什么风险,那么你最好三思而行。

A high-yield bond fund such as the iShares High Yield Corporate Bond exchange-traded fund (HYG), which lends money to risky companies, sports a yield of about 5%. That's the maximum yield you can earn without taking on much more risk.

诸如安硕高收益率企业债交易所交易基金(iShares High Yield Corporate Bond exchange-traded fund)这样的高收益率债券基金为风险较高的企业提供贷款,这类基金的收益率约为5%。这是你在不承担过高风险的情况下能够挣到的最高收益率。

2. Going into the poor house to send Junior to a country-club college

2. 倾家荡产送孩子去私立大学读书

Over the past 40 years, the cost of tuition and fees at a private university has tripled─after accounting for inflation. The cost of a public university has quadrupled.


The cost of getting a bachelor's degree has become a scandal in this country. Students spend $160, 000 on a four-year degree and the results are too often questionable.


Financial planners strongly advise parents against plundering their own retirement savings, which they are likely to need, to pay for this.


Admittedly, a degree has become a protection racket─you can't get a job without one, but there are fewer jobs for those with them. But the smart move for the budget-constrained is to get a bachelor's degree at a public university. The tuition and fees average less than $9, 000 a year instead of $30, 000 at a private college.


3. Owning stock in your employer

3. 持有自己所工作企业的股票

This is one of the silliest and riskiest moves any investor can make. If the company hits trouble, you get whacked twice. You can lose your job and your savings─all in one fell swoop. Ask anyone who worked for Enron…or Lehman Brothers.

这大概是投资者能够做出的最愚蠢、最冒险的举动之一了。如果这家公司遇上麻烦,你将遭受双重打击。你可能会在丢了饭碗的同时,丢掉自己的积蓄──一杆子打翻一篮子的蛋。不信你去问问那些曾为安然(Enron)、或是雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)工作过的人。

The law, amazingly, actually encourages this crazy move. While employers' 401(k) plans are subject to punitive regulations, lest they allow you to take on too much 'risk, ' employers are allowed to offer their own stock among the investment options. Many do.


The Employee Benefit Research Institute says that the percentage of 401(k) assets held in employers' stock has been halved since 2000, but the numbers are still alarming. Furthermore, it's the youngest workers─those best able to take a gamble─who are shunning their employers' company stock.

员工福利研究所(Employee Benefit Research Institute)表示,自2000年以来,401(k)资产中雇主股票的占比已经减少了一半,不过目前的数字依然很惊人。而且,如今不愿意持有自己公司股票的员工是那些最年轻的人,而这些人其实是承担风险能力最高的人。

At companies where the 401(k) plan offers the option, workers aged 40 or over typically hold about 20% of their entire 401(k) account in the company's stock, according to EBRI data. Crazy.


4. Taking Social Security too early

4. 过早支取社保金

If you can afford to delay taking your Social Security retirement benefit, do.


Someone earning $50, 000 a year who starts claiming Social Security as soon as he or she is able, age 62, will typically collect a monthly check of about $1, 000, according to the Social Security Administration. If they wait until they are 70, that amount would double.

根据美国社会安全局(Social Security Administration)的数据,年薪五万美元的员工若在自己年满62岁这一支取社保金的规定年龄后即开始使用社保,则通常每月可以得到大约1,000美元。如果他们能够等到70岁,那么这个数字将会翻倍。

Taking Social Security too early, or without thinking through the consequences, is one of the biggest financial blunders people can make─roughly on a par with buying tech stocks in 2000 or a Las Vegas condo in 2006. The lure of getting money early can blind people to the big cost down the road.


(Many retirees may not have much of a choice. Hard labor at low pay over a lifetime takes its toll on a person. Also, many companies all but force older workers into early retirements.)


In any case, it doesn't take more than just a few years before the total money accrued with the higher, later benefits surpasses the total earned starting at the earlier retirement age.


But that understates the bigger issue. Social Security is insurance. For many retirees, the big risk isn't that they will run out of money before they turn 70, but after 85. According to the Centers for Disease Control, more than half of women currently age 65 will live to 85 or longer, and three out of eight men.

不过,这样说会让人们忽视一个更大的问题。社保金是一种保险。对于许多退休者而言,最大的风险不在于他们会在70岁之前没钱了,而是在85岁之后。根据美国疾病控制与预防中心(Centers for Disease Control)的数据,目前年龄在65岁的女性中,超过半数的人将活到85岁甚至更久,男性中的这个比例为八分之三。

David Blanchett, head of retirement research for financial research firm Morningstar, says it makes sense for women, married couples and those with good health to wait longer for a bigger paycheck.

晨星公司(Morningstar)负责退休问题研究的主管戴维•布兰切特(David Blanchett)说,对于女性、已婚夫妇和那些身体状况良好者而言,应该多等些时间以便得到更高的福利,因为这样做更为合理。

5. Buying long-term bonds

5. 购买长期债券

A surprising number of people still subscribe to the flawed and circular argument that bonds, including long-term government bonds, are 'safe.' In reality, bonds─especially long-term government bonds─are the rare example of a bubble that has been explicitly declared.


The Fed is openly printing money and using it to buy up such bonds, driving up the price and driving down the interest rates, in order to help the economy. There is no dispute about this. It's public policy.


A 30-year Treasury bond currently sports an interest rate of just 3.1%. That's barely half a percentage point above long-term inflation forecasts. Based on history, the yield should be at least 4.5%, or two percentage points above inflation.


Thirty-year Treasury inflation-protected securities, known as TIPS, sport a 'real' or inflation-adjusted yield of 0.6% a year. Again, it should be 2%.


The only reason to buy such bonds in any quantity is to gamble on a 1930s-style depression and world-wide deflation. Such bonds are a gamble, not a safe haven.